Market thermometer
Risk Score
A daily 0-100 score for how much risk we see in the US market. Based on 7 quantitative signals (volatility, credit spreads, breadth, etc.) plus a narrative read of financial X/Twitter.
Quantitative crash/recession risk screens moderately elevated at 6.4/10 with deteriorating momentum across multiple flags. The yield curve remains deeply inverted (2s10s at -30bps, 3m10y at -80bps) maintaining its strongest warning signal at 7.5/10, while credit spreads have stopped tightening and begun widening from recent lows despite remaining below stress levels at 360-380bps HY OAS. Market breadth remains concerning with top-10 S&P 500 concentration at 33-34% and only 55-60% of constituents above 200-day MAs, while liquidity conditions stay constrained under ongoing QT and tight lending standards. Narrative reading not available this brief.
Updated June 3, 2026
30-day history
Composite score per day
What does this score mean?
0-30 (Low risk): The broader market is healthy. Risk-on environment.
30-50 (Normal): Standard volatility. No extreme signals.
50-70 (Elevated): Stress in parts of the market. Be careful with new positions.
70-100 (High risk): Multiple crash signals are flashing. Think defensively.
This score is not a forecast. A high score means historically there has been more risk in the market — not that a crash will happen tomorrow. Use it as one of several inputs to your own decisions.